So here's my wild guess, based on pure speculation: Facebook Home will be a success. Big times.
Why? Again my blunt speculation: Because smartphones are about contact much more then about fulfilling tasks. Even because the web is about contact rather than content.
People are interested in other people, rather than in fulfilling taks. And while PCs were made for work and taks fulfillment, the smartphone - not so much. Not in a lot of context where it is used.
And most people don't care who provides the platform. Or wheter the thing you use is hardware, software, OS, app, webpage etc. Either the thing works for them or not.
Back in 2004 till 2006, when I was in Denmark studying and working, I found out: what you call home is not so much the surroundings, the location, anymore. At least not for people who lived in different places during childhood and youth. What you call home is your connection to friends and mates. And that's exactly what facebook provides.
So Facebook hijacks Google's turf. It's like with the Zerg in Starcraft: where they land, the land transforms itself into something the Zerg live on. But people won't care. As little as they cared about the processors inside, the OS. Any underlying layer of technology becomes quite unimportant as long as the interface to the human is done well. So Facebook's on top.
I'm curious to see how wrong I am.
How wrong I was. Not only the implementation of the concept was sub optimal. There seems to be a hesitation from users to commit to only one social network, only to one service. Let's see how it develops in the long run.
(cc-by-sa) since 2005 by Konstantin Weiss.